Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x842a…7422
sports · 335 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$89,099 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$88,260 · open −$839
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23,679
Realized−$88,260
Unrealized−$839
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses156 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$6,725
Open positions18
Markets (closed)318 / 335
History coverage16d
Avg bet$1,706
Trades / day205.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 18 History 318 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$530
7 days−$39,198
14 days−$121,835
30 days−$88,260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 56¢ 82¢ $6,763 $9,835 +$3,073 (+45%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 84¢ $3,000 $2,982 −$18 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 57¢ $2,163 $2,893 +$730 (+34%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 56¢ 42¢ $2,817 $2,138 −$679 (-24%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $2,000 $1,985 −$15 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 54¢ 48¢ $874 $785 −$89 (-10%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Under 61¢ 56¢ $840 $764 −$76 (-9%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Team Liquid 47¢ 88¢ $377 $710 +$333 (+88%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 42¢ 42¢ $561 $558 −$3 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $525 $520 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 32¢ 64¢ $117 $232 +$115 (+98%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 33¢ 28¢ $118 $98 −$20 (-17%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Under 46¢ 28¢ $130 $79 −$51 (-39%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Knicks 37¢ 36¢ $53 $51 −$2 (-4%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Under 53¢ 41¢ $62 $48 −$14 (-23%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? No 36¢ 0¢ $264 $0 −$264 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Switzerland 33¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Over 35¢ 0¢ $328 $0 −$328 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 18¢ 0¢ $1,250 $0 −$1,250 (-100%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 57¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card) Santiago Luna 46¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Marta Kostyuk 56¢ 0¢ $8,379 $0 −$8,379 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Spurs 65¢ 0¢ $339 $0 −$339 (-100%)
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Tomas Barrios 51¢ 0¢ $2,009 $0 −$2,009 (-100%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire PortlandFire 57¢ 0¢ $8,550 $0 −$8,550 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3,189 +$2,811 +88%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $112 −$112 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $279 −$279 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $454 −$454 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $313 +$128 +41%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $138 −$138 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $88 +$183 +208%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5,000 +$5,613 +112%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $250 +$66 +27%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $228 +$47 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $133 +$176 +133%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $275 −$275 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 13 $137 −$137 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $747 −$747 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $93 +$107 +115%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5,410 −$4,863 -90%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,477 −$1,985 -80%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $228 +$179 +79%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $157 +$163 +104%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $151 +$71 +47%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $123 +$75 +61%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,789 −$1,789 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $8,070 +$5,608 +70%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $174 +$131 +75%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $5,202 −$5,196 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $771 +$205 +27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4,608 −$4,607 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $92 −$92 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $69 +$143 +206%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 11 $174 +$121 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $724 −$208 -29%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $350 +$188 +54%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2,754 −$2,186 -79%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $517 +$126 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5,655 −$4,345 -77%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $798 +$757 +95%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 11 $663 +$1,135 +171%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,920 +$293 +15%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +194%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 +$2 +59%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $8 −$1 -16%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +92%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $12 +$6 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Jun 11 $13 +$13 +100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 11 $13 +$28 +212%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $65 +$49 +75%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $105 +$47 +45%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $122 +$30 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% −$76,257
other 9% −$12,842
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $2,021 18m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $3,014 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $110 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $3 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 32¢ $119 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $7 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $8 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $19 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $22 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $22 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $22 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $22 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $154 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $33 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $2 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $70 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $2 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $2 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $2 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $145 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $92 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $2 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $71 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $2 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -0.7% -10.1% 49% 49% -28.5%
≤30d 318 -2.8% -12.0% 49% 48% -24.0%
≤90d 318 -2.8% -12.0% 49% 48% -24.0%
all 318 -2.8% -12.0% 49% 48% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover205.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 48% -24.0%
10% -20.5% 44% -31.3%
15% ← realistic here -28.1% 38% -37.9%
20% -35.2% 34% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,678.58 · official $23,682.81 (match) · 3500 history records