Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
84 0x8428…827c crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%29W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$24
14 days−$22
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$4
other 42% −$25
finance 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.9% -13.0% 50% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 6 -1.0% -10.5% 83% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$19 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses29 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage77d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 99¢ $281 $279 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $280 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $304 −$24 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $303 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $302 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $301 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $299 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $299 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $299 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $298 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $297 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $294 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $293 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $292 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $292 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $290 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10? May 11 $290 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $289 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 08 $289 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $289 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? May 05 $289 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 04 $288 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $288 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $303 −$14 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $303 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $303 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $302 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $302 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 16? Apr 18 $302 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $302 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $145 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 15 $154 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $281 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $280 23h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $280 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $304 5d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $303 9d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $302 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $301 15d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $299 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $299 38d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $299 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $298 40d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $297 41d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $294 42d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $293 44d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $292 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $292 46d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $290 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $290 50d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $289 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $289 53d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $289 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $289 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $288 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $288 60d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $289 64d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $303 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $303 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $303 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $302 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $302 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.40 · official $279.26 (match) · 64 history records