Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x8428…3faa
sports · 86 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$25 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$158 · open −$183
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$183
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses21 / 55
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions10
Markets (closed)76 / 86
History coverage24d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 10 History 76 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$205
14 days+$188
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+47%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+42%)
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Spirit 65¢ 0¢ $178 $0 −$178 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 13¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A NRG 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A MOUZ 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs MIBR 35¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Legacy 32¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Legacy 48¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Heroic 36¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs Eternal Fire 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Legacy 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner paiN 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 3 Winner Team Falcons 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial - Map 3 Winner ShindeN 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial - Map 4 Winner Imperial 30¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$20 +100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $17 +$18 +104%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $287 +$164 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $59 −$4 -6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $27 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$26 +128%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $102 +$107 +105%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $70 +$41 +59%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $15 +$19 +123%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $27 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $16 +$121 +739%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $53 +$46 +88%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 +$14 +137%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $10 +$9 +91%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $10 +$11 +110%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $17 −$17 -98%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $74 +$68 +91%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $15 +$37 +242%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $7 −$7 -97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $6 −$1 -16%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 +$10 +196%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $9 +$7 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% −$19
other 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 63¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 69¢ $81 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 27¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 90¢ $41 4h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 44¢ $20 4h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 23¢ $9 6h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 34¢ $15 6h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 87¢ $35 6h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 42¢ $17 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 16¢ $8 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 44¢ $15 9h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $81 25h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $26 25h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 75¢ $286 25h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $74 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $25 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $55 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 39¢ $25 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 39¢ $25 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 36¢ $55 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 37¢ $59 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 54¢ $59 28h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $71 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 39¢ $27 28h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 5¢ $2 29h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 48¢ $11 30h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $46 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -20.4% -27.9% 28% 28% +10.7%
≤30d 76 -22.0% -29.5% 28% 28% -1.0%
≤90d 76 -22.0% -29.5% 28% 28% -1.0%
all 76 -22.0% -29.5% 28% 28% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 28% -1.0%
10% -36.2% 28% -10.5%
15% -42.4% 28% -19.1%
20% -48.0% 26% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.73 · official $45.73 (match) · 158 history records