Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8428…1857 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$182 (-6%) realized −$119 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$455
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$1
sports 36% −$180
crypto 13% +$145
tech 2% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.1% -4.0% 44% 44% +12.9%
≤30d 32 -17.1% -25.0% 34% 34% -10.9%
≤90d 32 -17.1% -25.0% 34% 34% -10.9%
all 32 -17.1% -25.0% 34% 34% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 34% -10.9%
10% -32.2% 31% -19.4%
15% -38.7% 28% -27.2%
20% -44.7% 28% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$61 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$467
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)32 / 39
History coverage12d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 92¢ $200 $316 +$116 (+58%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $50 $97 +$47 (+94%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $102 +$161 +158%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $41 +$113 +276%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $27 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$154 +152%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$176 +344%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$28 +110%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $96 −$95 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $66 −$64 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: BUY 5¢ $26 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $102 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $256 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $135 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $466.85 · official $468.93 (match) · 50 history records