Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:57:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x8428…b41f
crypto · 748 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1,862 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,138 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$1,138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses406 / 412
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)818 / 748
History coverage21d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day146.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 818 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,340
7 days−$1,382
14 days−$1,162
30 days−$1,138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Spurs 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5) Atlanta Dream 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-4.5) Los Angeles Sparks 77¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Spread: Chicago Sky (-6.5) Chicago Sky 48¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Spurs 53¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? Jun 14 $5 −$7 -144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $0 −$34 -15179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 21? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -361%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 22? Jun 14 $9 −$10 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 22? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$15 -165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 21? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$5 -412%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 24? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$4 -1400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$3 +1459%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$26 -3500%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $0 −$58 -20525%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$23 -10554%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 85% +$195
sports 14% +$28
other 1% −$2
weather 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 -24.4% -31.6% 38% 32% -31.7%
≤30d 818 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 45% -14.1%
≤90d 818 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 45% -14.1%
all 818 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 45% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover146.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 45% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 40% -22.4%
15% -30.9% 35% -29.9%
20% -37.7% 29% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.89 · official $13.89 (match) · 3500 history records