Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

84 0x8423…6ce0 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$535 (+38%) realized +$539 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR19%break-even

Win rate94%15W / 1L

Drawdown21%max

Avg bet$83per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days+$251

30 days+$427

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +19%

net ROI/market (all)+0.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	3	+48.2%	+34.0%	67%	67%	+61.6%
≤90d	11	+16.3%	+5.2%	91%	27%	+40.6%
all	16	+11.3%	+0.7%	94%	19%	+37.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.7%	19%	+37.3%
10%	-9.0%	19%	+24.2%
15%	-17.8%	12%	+12.2%
20%	-25.8%	12%	+1.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

80% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +0% → late +22% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$42 vs −$107 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×5.86 per $1 lost it wins $5.86

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage

Net worth$393

Realized+$539

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)94%

Wins / losses15 / 1

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage169d

Avg bet$83

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown21%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	No	48¢	48¢	$397	$393	−$4 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$221	+$251	+114%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 20	$109	−$107	-98%
Lakers vs. Rockets	May 20	$216	+$282	+130%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers	Apr 24	$310	+$90	+29%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Apr 18	$10	$0	+0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?	Apr 18	$11	$0	+0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?	Apr 18	$11	$0	+1%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?	Apr 18	$11	$0	+1%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in March 2026?	Apr 18	$12	$0	+0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?	Apr 18	$12	$0	+2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March	Apr 18	$13	$0	+0%
Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20	Feb 02	$9	$0	+1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of January?	Feb 02	$13	$0	+0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	Feb 02	$15	$0	+0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of January 5 above $600?	Jan 13	$16	$0	+0%
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2025?	Jan 08	$14	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	48¢	$403	1h
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	46¢	$37	9d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	46¢	$183	9d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Spurs	33¢	$109	29d
Lakers vs. Rockets	BUY Lakers	28¢	$28	55d
Lakers vs. Rockets	BUY Rockets	73¢	$74	55d
Lakers vs. Rockets	BUY Lakers	28¢	$114	55d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	77¢	$310	61d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March	BUY No	100¢	$13	84d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?	BUY No	99¢	$11	92d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY Yes	100¢	$10	99d
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$11	106d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in March 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$12	111d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?	BUY No	98¢	$12	115d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?	BUY No	99¢	$11	131d
Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20	BUY No	99¢	$9	138d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$15	149d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of January?	BUY Yes	100¢	$13	156d
Will Meta (META) finish week of January 5 above $600?	BUY Yes	100¢	$16	161d
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2025?	BUY No	100¢	$14	169d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.82 · official $392.82 (match) · 35 history records