Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
84 0x8420…45de sports 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+9%) realized +$61 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%79W / 82L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$19
other 21% +$45
crypto 1% −$5
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -9.9% -18.5% 47% 46% -10.0%
≤30d 158 -3.9% -13.0% 49% 48% -0.4%
≤90d 160 -4.3% -13.5% 49% 48% -0.6%
all 161 -4.9% -14.0% 49% 47% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 47% -0.9%
10% -22.2% 47% -10.4%
15% -29.7% 47% -19.1%
20% -36.6% 45% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses79 / 82
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)161 / 167
History coverage138d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $3 +$2 +72%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $3 +$3 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +108%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +107%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $12 −$11 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $7 +$5 +69%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$5 -58%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +81%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 +$21 +171%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$3 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $3 +$3 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $6 +$5 +90%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 −$3 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$3 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 +$4 +82%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $4 +$2 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 +$2 +66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $9 +$5 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +105%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 +$2 +53%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $4 +$2 +69%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $4 −$3 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $8 −$7 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $6 +$4 +64%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $4 +$3 +93%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $4 +$3 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 27m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 96¢ $5 16h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $3 18h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $6 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 21h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $3 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $5 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $3 24h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $3 27h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 28h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $3 28h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $6 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $7 42h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $3 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $12 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 63¢ $4 44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $4 46h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 46h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $6 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.43 · official $22.43 (match) · 296 history records