Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8420…6183 other 249 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,270 (+4%) realized +$2,315 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%104W / 117L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,025now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 119d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$5,298
finance 14% −$671
other 8% −$134
politics 6% −$213
sports 1% +$95
culture 0% −$113
crypto 0% −$3
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +23.1% +11.4% 55% 55% -15.0%
≤30d 19 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 42% -38.2%
≤90d 160 -20.5% -28.0% 39% 31% -27.6%
all 221 -12.2% -20.6% 47% 32% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 32% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 21% -27.6%
15% -35.1% 18% -34.6%
20% -41.5% 14% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$77 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$1,025
Realized+$2,315
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses104 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions28
Markets (closed)221 / 249
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$236
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 46¢ 60¢ $149 $195 +$45 (+30%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $186 $177 −$8 (-4%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $109 $108 −$1 (-1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $57 $58 +$2 (+3%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 72¢ 80¢ $51 $56 +$5 (+10%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No 28¢ 24¢ $61 $53 −$8 (-13%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 47¢ 42¢ $56 $51 −$5 (-10%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 66¢ 58¢ $53 $47 −$6 (-11%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-6%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 80¢ 81¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 45¢ 99¢ $9 $20 +$11 (+119%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 71¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-18%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $13 $11 −$1 (-10%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 33¢ 38¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? No 53¢ 54¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 54¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-29%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $16 +$6 +36%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $43 −$3 -6%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $2 +$5 +242%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12 +$8 +70%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 21 $90 −$12 -14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$7 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $13 −$13 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $19 −$19 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $27 −$27 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $322 −$319 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $8 −$7 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $67 −$34 -50%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $4 +$6 +138%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $14 +$6 +43%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 19 $9 +$21 +219%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $17 +$33 +194%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $45 +$5 +12%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 19 $85 +$111 +130%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $665 +$179 +27%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $63 +$5 +8%
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $6 +$24 +404%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $6 +$24 +400%
Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $55 −$52 -94%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -28%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $12 +$8 +67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 01 $10 +$10 +105%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $5 +$5 +105%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $7 +$3 +44%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playo Apr 29 $7 +$3 +40%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $44 +$5 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $15 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 2h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 2h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 14¢ $7 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 3h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 53¢ $11 3h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 9h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 11h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 20h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $7 25h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 57¢ $57 26h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 26h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $5 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 30h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 34h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 34h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 35h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 35h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $45 35h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $45 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,024.70 · official $1,024.72 (match) · 3500 history records