Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
84 0x841e…9032 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate87%20W / 3L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$11
weather 2% $0
other 1% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 23 -4.0% -13.1% 87% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$16 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses20 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage240d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? Jun 25 $47 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 01 $47 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? May 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 79°F or below on March 22? Apr 28 $47 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 4? Mar 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on February Feb 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 5-11? Jan 19 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 06 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on November Nov 13 $606 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? Nov 12 $1,616 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112,000 on November 11? Nov 12 $1,609 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 11? Nov 11 $1,602 +$6 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 11 $1,602 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Nov 09 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $124,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $102 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 01 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 28? Oct 29 $102 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $48 1h
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $47 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $47 45d
Will Trump visit China by May 8? BUY No 100¢ $47 57d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 79°F or below on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $47 95d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? BUY No 99¢ $47 103d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $46 112d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $46 118d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 BUY No 100¢ $46 134d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on February BUY No 100¢ $46 142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? BUY No 93¢ $31 156d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $31 156d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $31 156d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 5-11? BUY No 98¢ $30 169d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $30 183d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $30 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? SELL No 99¢ $2 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? SELL No 99¢ $5 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? SELL No 99¢ $5 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? SELL No 99¢ $120 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? SELL No 99¢ $5 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? SELL No 99¢ $5 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? SELL No 99¢ $5 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? SELL No 99¢ $5 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? SELL No 99¢ $5 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? SELL No 99¢ $2 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? SELL No 99¢ $7 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? SELL No 99¢ $5 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? SELL No 99¢ $5 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? SELL No 99¢ $5 224d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records