Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x841c…fc92 crypto 535 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$94 (+3%) realized +$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%249W / 288L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days+$17
14 days+$32
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
sports 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +12.6% +1.9% 48% 48% +1.0%
≤30d 35 +1.0% -8.6% 43% 43% -3.2%
≤90d 537 +5.1% -4.9% 46% 46% -10.3%
all 537 +5.1% -4.9% 46% 46% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 46% -10.3%
10% -14.0% 46% -18.9%
15% -22.3% 45% -26.7%
20% -29.9% 41% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses249 / 288
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)537 / 535
History coverage81d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 537 Trades
no open positions (91 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$10 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$7 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$34 +586%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$15 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$12 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 08 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 07 $11 +$37 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 30 $13 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 30 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 29 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 29 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 29 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 16 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 16 $3 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 15 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 15 $5 +$21 +393%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 15 $5 +$9 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1349 history records