Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

84 0x841a…c345 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$4 (-24%) realized −$1 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip

Net edge-45%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%3W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day4.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-42.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-36.6%	-42.6%	38%	38%	-53.2%
≤30d	8	-36.6%	-42.6%	38%	38%	-53.2%
≤90d	8	-36.6%	-42.6%	38%	38%	-53.2%
all	8	-36.6%	-42.6%	38%	38%	-53.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-42.6%	38%	-53.2%
10%	-48.1%	12%	-57.7%
15%	-53.1%	12%	-61.8%
20%	-57.7%	12%	-65.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 82% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -37% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.3 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized−$1

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses3 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)8 / 10

History coverage3d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day4.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	67¢	66¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	51¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-98%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$1	+$2	+170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 13	$1	$0	+17%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$1	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	51¢	$3	15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$3	18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$3	18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	45h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$1	45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$1	2d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	36¢	$1	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.01 · official $3.42 (match) · 13 history records