trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +5.3% | -4.8% | 20% | 20% | +201.6% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -12.3% | -20.6% | 17% | 17% | +144.5% |
| all | 21 | +13.9% | +3.0% | 14% | 14% | +20.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +3.0% | 14% | +20.3% |
| 10% | -6.8% | 14% | +8.8% |
| 15% | -15.8% | 14% | -1.7% |
| 20% | -24.1% | 14% | -11.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $30 | $36 | +$6 (+20%) |
| Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $30 | $25 | −$5 (-17%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? | Jun 27 | $6 | −$6 | -94% |
| Spread: Senegal (-2.5) | Jun 16 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Jun 15 | $19 | +$81 | +426% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | Jun 09 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | May 09 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 23? | Feb 21 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 23? | Feb 21 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | Feb 12 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? | Feb 12 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? | Feb 12 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Solana dip to $110 January 26-1? | Feb 12 | $10 | +$34 | +337% |
| Will Solana dip to $120 January 19-25? | Feb 12 | $4 | +$53 | +1329% |
| Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on February 2? | Feb 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on February 2? | Feb 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 05 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 05 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Solana dip to $110 in November? | Nov 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Solana dip to $100 in November? | Nov 22 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 November 17-23? | Nov 22 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Microsoft dip to $435 in November? | Nov 21 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |