Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8413…3462 tech 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$3
economics 25% −$5
politics 23% −$6
crypto 10% −$2
sports 8% −$2
tech 7% +$13
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 17% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 26 +0.0% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 41 +0.7% -8.9% 24% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$577) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage214d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $117 $117 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 13 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $112 +$4 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 08 $961 −$2 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $965 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 08 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 08 $970 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $972 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 08 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 08 $1,154 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $577 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 08 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 08 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 06 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $24 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 30 $11 $0 +4%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 30 $11 $0 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $90 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 14 $22 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 23 $22 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 01 $55 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $117 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $117 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $115 13d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $114 14d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $114 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $103 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $104 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $113 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $113 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 95¢ $102 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $103 15d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $114 15d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $114 15d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 100¢ $116 28d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $112 40d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $959 51d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $961 51d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $961 51d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $965 51d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $965 51d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $966 51d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $965 51d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $966 51d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $968 51d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $970 51d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $971 51d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $972 51d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 99¢ $109 58d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $109 74d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $574 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.94 · official $116.94 (match) · 98 history records