Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x8413…5921 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$51 (-2%) realized −$95 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days−$266
14 days−$266
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$162
other 22% +$174
world 8% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -24.3% -31.5% 30% 30% -34.6%
≤30d 13 -16.0% -24.0% 46% 38% -13.8%
≤90d 13 -16.0% -24.0% 46% 38% -13.8%
all 13 -16.0% -24.0% 46% 38% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 38% -13.8%
10% -31.3% 23% -22.1%
15% -37.9% 15% -29.6%
20% -44.0% 15% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$66 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage17d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $124 +$30 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 +$64 +105%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -73%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$17 -82%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $188 −$84 -45%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$14 -64%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 +$100 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $311 −$311 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $568 +$12 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $683 +$92 +14%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $237 +$45 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $124 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $61 22h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 29h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $97 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $103 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $107 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $81 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $202 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 33¢ $28 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $311 15d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 79¢ $311 15d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 67¢ $268 16d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $268 16d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 70¢ $300 16d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 19¢ $124 16d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 30¢ $204 16d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 28¢ $416 16d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 18¢ $280 16d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 82¢ $281 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.97 · official $143.97 (match) · 35 history records