Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:42:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x8413…dbea
crypto · 7 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$120 +44%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$88 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 36¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $145 +$188 +130%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 54% +$188
crypto 46% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.5% -7.3% 57% 57% +19.8%
≤30d 7 +2.5% -7.3% 57% 57% +19.8%
≤90d 7 +2.5% -7.3% 57% 57% +19.8%
all 7 +2.5% -7.3% 57% 57% +19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 57% +19.8%
10% -16.2% 57% +8.4%
15% -24.3% 43% -2.1%
20% -31.7% 29% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records