Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8411…c309 crypto 149 markets active 6d ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate19%28W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$9
world 21% +$7
finance 16% −$32
other 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -57.9% -61.9% 0% 0% -50.2%
≤30d 23 +1.4% -8.2% 35% 35% -3.5%
≤90d 78 -28.7% -35.5% 14% 14% -21.3%
all 149 -19.5% -27.2% 19% 17% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 17% -18.2%
10% -34.2% 15% -26.1%
15% -40.5% 14% -33.2%
20% -46.4% 13% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$3 · ×3.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses28 / 121
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage120d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions (88 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 11 $15 −$8 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $11 −$6 -60%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 11 $33 −$11 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $11 +$4 +37%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 18-24? May 23 $3 +$4 +120%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? May 23 $13 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 23 $43 −$15 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 23 $4 +$8 +198%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? May 23 $49 +$32 +65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 23 $63 −$9 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 23 $2 +$1 +68%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 23? May 23 $14 +$22 +158%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 21? May 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? May 20 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 19? May 18 $7 −$3 -42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 18? May 18 $4 −$1 -30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 18 $9 $0 -4%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? May 18 $23 +$19 +79%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 11-17? May 18 $4 −$4 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 11-17? May 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17? May 18 $2 +$89 +3799%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 16? May 16 $2 +$7 +405%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 16 $24 −$2 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $8 −$3 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 15 $6 −$5 -93%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on May 15? May 15 $3 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15? May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 15? May 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? May 13 $8 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 13? May 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? May 12 $3 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 13? May 11 $4 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 12? May 11 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 10? May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $1 $0 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $4 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? BUY No 0¢ $11 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY No 1¢ $2 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 18-24? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 24d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL Yes 3¢ $16 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 24d
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? SELL Yes 3¢ $22 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL Yes 4¢ $54 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 25d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 23? SELL No 31¢ $34 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 381 history records