Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8411…a7f1 politics 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$11
politics 37% −$10
sports 8% −$53
world 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -0.4% -9.9% 3% 2% -9.6%
all 113 -3.3% -12.5% 5% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 3% -9.9%
10% -20.9% 3% -18.5%
15% -28.5% 3% -26.4%
20% -35.5% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×7.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 107
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage115d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $168 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $214 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $157 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $198 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $154 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $28 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $173 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $289 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $137 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $370 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $332 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $137 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $332 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $156 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $151 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $467 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $372 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $173 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $176 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $166 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $299 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $335 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $192 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $183 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $157 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $180 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 05 $144 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $451 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $151 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $162 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $169 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $175 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $136 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $153 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 13h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 20h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 9d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 9d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 11d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 11d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 15d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 17d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 18d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 18d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 18d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 18d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 19d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 343 history records