Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x8411…0ed1 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+2%) realized +$55 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate74%23W / 8L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$8
other 38% +$3
sports 2% +$1
finance 2% +$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +9.5% -0.9% 80% 80% +2.0%
≤30d 5 +9.5% -0.9% 80% 80% +2.0%
≤90d 10 +10.7% +0.2% 90% 60% -0.7%
all 31 +7.4% -2.8% 74% 45% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 45% -5.2%
10% -12.1% 32% -14.3%
15% -20.6% 23% -22.5%
20% -28.4% 10% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses23 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)31 / 40
History coverage113d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $95 $68 −$27 (-29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 97¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 86¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $72 +$11 +15%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Trump say "China" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $5 $0 +10%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? May 19 $40 +$2 +6%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? May 19 $120 +$6 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? May 19 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? May 19 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $60 −$8 -14%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Mar 20 $20 −$1 -5%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $40 −$5 -13%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $20 $0 +2%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Mar 16 $30 −$27 -90%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9? Mar 11 $20 +$23 +113%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11? Mar 08 $10 +$3 +35%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 08 $20 −$14 -70%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 08 $20 $0 +2%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 08 $50 −$15 -30%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7? Mar 08 $60 +$39 +65%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 06 $20 −$18 -92%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Mar 05 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 04 $10 +$3 +25%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $15 +$3 +18%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 01 $50 +$2 +5%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $20 +$8 +41%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $50 +$4 +7%
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in F Feb 28 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 97¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 86¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $83 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $15 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 31d
Will Trump say "China" during Coast Guard event? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 31d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 83¢ $49 91d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL No 76¢ $19 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.49 · official $197.48 (match) · 98 history records