Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
84 0x840e…2372 world 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%40W / 59L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days+$4
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% $0
sports 27% −$2
other 20% +$16
politics 15% +$2
finance 1% −$4
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.6% -10.1% 22% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 29 -0.4% -9.9% 41% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 49 -0.4% -9.8% 39% 0% -9.5%
all 99 +2.7% -7.1% 40% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 2% -9.3%
10% -16.0% 1% -18.0%
15% -24.1% 1% -25.9%
20% -31.5% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses40 / 59
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage284d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 62¢ 74¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $71 −$1 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $78 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $151 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $151 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $72 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $74 −$2 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $75 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $94 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $86 +$6 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $84 +$2 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $72 +$3 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $72 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $108 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $72 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $109 +$3 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $53 +$2 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $82 −$10 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $77 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 -14%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $79 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $148 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $87 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $3 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $111 −$4 -4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 24 $79 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $4 $0 +2%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $82 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $111 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $81 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $739 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $73 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $101 +$7 +7%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $34 −$5 -15%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $670 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $669 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $1,011 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $42 +$3 +6%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $176 +$13 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $77 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $70 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $32 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $40 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $78 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $78 14h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $8 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $24 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $32 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $71 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $72 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $72 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $72 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $32 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $40 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $72 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $79 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $79 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $29 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $42 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $54 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $20 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $53 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $8 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $46 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $66 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $22 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $53 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.85 · official $77.32 (match) · 415 history records