Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x840e…0983 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 431d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$1
world 45% −$10
politics 7% +$2
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -9.1% -17.8% 40% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 17 -4.8% -13.8% 18% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 17 -4.8% -13.8% 18% 0% -11.5%
all 40 -2.5% -11.8% 35% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -10.4%
10% -20.2% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

431d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage431d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $27 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $26 +$1 +3%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $4 $0 -10%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $61 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $20 −$4 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $17 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $38 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Benfica beat Auckland City? Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Israel announces end of military operations against Iran by Friday? Jun 20 $19 $0 +1%
Starmer out before July? Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 06 $1 $0 -25%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $4 −$1 -12%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 06 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $18 +$1 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $6 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $21 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $8 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $19 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 18h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $27 21h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $26 25h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 38h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 12d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 12d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $12 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $30 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $30 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.02 · official $29.98 (match) · 117 history records