Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:05:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x840e…b9ed other 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,686 (-5%) realized −$2,707 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate37%61W / 102L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$268est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$440
7 days−$432
14 days−$600
30 days−$954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$981
world 31% −$458
sports 25% −$432
politics 5% −$439
finance 5% −$490
tech 1% −$38
crypto 1% −$7
economics 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.9% -21.2% 39% 0% -18.0%
≤30d 65 -14.1% -22.3% 32% 2% -15.6%
≤90d 163 -5.6% -14.6% 37% 10% -14.6%
all 163 -5.6% -14.6% 37% 10% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 10% -14.6%
10% -22.7% 5% -22.8%
15% -30.2% 3% -30.2%
20% -37.1% 2% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$42 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$2,707
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses61 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$268
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage72d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 16 $40 −$13 -34%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -75%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $310 −$198 -64%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $137 −$21 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $102 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $603 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $215 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $808 −$206 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $199 −$8 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $210 −$14 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $606 +$22 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $9 −$1 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $392 +$2 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $192 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $192 +$8 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $172 −$8 -4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $58 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $386 +$5 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 08 $108 −$36 -33%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $152 −$25 -16%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 08 $95 −$24 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $387 $0 -0%
Will voter turnout be at least 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zamb Jun 07 $36 −$19 -54%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 06 $50 −$1 -2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 06 $49 +$1 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $25 −$3 -11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 5? Jun 05 $52 −$5 -10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 4? Jun 04 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $120 −$20 -17%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $408 −$34 -8%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 02 $33 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 2? Jun 02 $147 −$39 -26%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $203 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $58 −$4 -7%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? May 31 $63 −$5 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $388 +$3 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $202 −$2 -1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 29 $16 −$10 -63%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May? May 29 $0 $0 -50%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $100 +$7 +7%
Will CA River Plate vs. Club Blooming end in a draw? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 27 $222 −$2 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 27 $15 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $60 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1,592 +$18 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $372 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 24 $210 +$5 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 24 $138 +$4 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 88¢ $18 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 19¢ $112 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 51¢ $44 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 51¢ $7 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 51¢ $26 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 51¢ $26 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 52¢ $104 7h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 52¢ $104 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 79¢ $9 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 79¢ $4 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 79¢ $2 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $14 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $11 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $100 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $81 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $80 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $102 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.59 · official $120.59 (match) · 1236 history records