Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x840c…7450 other 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$147 (+7%) realized +$59 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%40W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$175
14 days+$72
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$18
sports 18% −$9
crypto 4% +$32
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +13.7% +2.9% 39% 39% +22.1%
≤30d 122 +9.1% -1.3% 33% 32% -6.7%
≤90d 122 +9.1% -1.3% 33% 32% -6.7%
all 122 +9.1% -1.3% 33% 32% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 32% -6.7%
10% -10.8% 32% -15.6%
15% -19.4% 29% -23.8%
20% -27.3% 27% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses40 / 82
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)122 / 127
History coverage27d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $84 $82 −$2 (-2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 8¢ $32 $8 −$24 (-73%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-99%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 42¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? No 25¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? No 48¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? No 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? No 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? No 16¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 30¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? No 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? No 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? No 15¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$53 +133%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -52%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $37 −$36 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 +$24 +122%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$9 -43%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $58 +$67 +116%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 +$48 +668%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $14 +$16 +114%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $12 +$6 +47%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -74%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$8 +405%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$5 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 +$2 +227%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$48 +158%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$20 +96%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 +$8 +264%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $18 +$14 +74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $8 +$10 +128%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $5 +$5 +96%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $4 +$6 +153%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $51 +$14 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 25m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $8 27m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 42m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $3 50m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 50m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 54m
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 8¢ $2 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 92¢ $93 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 19¢ $4 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 24¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $31 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 13¢ $5 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 8¢ $2 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 17¢ $2 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $4 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $1 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $5 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $31 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $10 8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.98 · official $101.07 (match) · 283 history records