Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8405…2163 other 1846 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,153 (-3%) realized −$1,145 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%735W / 1223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 127d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$459
sports 33% −$711
world 1% −$10
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -74.4% -76.8% 11% 10% -82.8%
≤30d 260 -48.2% -53.1% 21% 20% -67.6%
≤90d 1138 -16.4% -24.4% 35% 32% -26.1%
all 1958 -11.5% -19.9% 38% 35% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 35% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 34% -26.0%
15% -34.6% 31% -33.2%
20% -41.0% 24% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized−$1,145
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses735 / 1223
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1958 / 1846
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1958 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $38 $44 +$6 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $41 $33 −$8 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $21 $28 +$7 (+32%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $26 $18 −$8 (-33%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $21 $15 −$6 (-29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $12 $15 +$2 (+18%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-14%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-01-06? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Will FC København win on 2026-01-20? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Randers FC vs. Vejle BK end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Qairat FK vs. Club Brugge KV end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Holstein Kiel vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-25? Jun 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Como 1907 vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 22-28? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. Torino FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Palermo FC vs. Empoli FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-29? Jun 20 $10 −$12 -120%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Como 1907 vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Will AVS Futebol vs. SC Braga end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will CA Tigre vs. CA Aldosivi end in a draw? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-26? Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-01-04? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will US Lecce vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-01-25? Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will FC Petrolul Ploieşti vs. AFC Unirea Slobozia end in a draw? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-03? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Südtirol vs. US Catanzaro 1929 end in a draw? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Frosinone Calcio vs. AC Reggiana 1919 end in a draw? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. PSV end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Jun 20 $18 −$21 -115%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -110%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-01-28? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-07? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-18? Jun 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-07? Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 6h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 16h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 16h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 16h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 55¢ $17 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $18 17h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 17h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $23 17h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $16 17h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $17 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 17h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $18 17h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 17h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 55¢ $17 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $22 17h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.90 · official $274.90 (match) · 3500 history records