Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
84 0x8405…cba8 other 221 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$698 (-2%) realized −$698 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate67%149W / 72L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$24
14 days+$30
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$1,438
crypto 8% +$148
sports 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.9% -12.2% 80% 60% -12.7%
≤30d 28 +3.0% -6.8% 86% 68% -3.9%
≤90d 130 -1.3% -10.7% 75% 62% -13.0%
all 221 -2.1% -11.5% 67% 48% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 48% -12.7%
10% -19.9% 24% -21.1%
15% -27.7% 11% -28.7%
20% -34.8% 5% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$62 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$698
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses149 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)221 / 221
History coverage150d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 221 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $140 −$138 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $124 +$45 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $141 +$27 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $140 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $141 +$27 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $98 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $81 +$41 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 03 $98 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 02 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 01 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 30 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 30 $91 +$21 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 28 $97 +$20 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 27 $99 +$15 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 27 $30 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 26 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 25 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 24 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 23 $20 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 22 $19 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 21 $17 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 20 $18 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 19 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 18 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 18 $19 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 16 $49 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 16 $45 +$15 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 16 $43 +$19 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 16 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 12 $45 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 12 $46 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 12 $47 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 11 $44 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 11 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 10 $41 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $124 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $141 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $140 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $141 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $108 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $98 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $122 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $81 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $109 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $100 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $98 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $14 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $8 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $91 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $97 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $99 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $29 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 721 history records