Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
83 0x83ff…3ffb sports 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$85 (-11%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%90W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$5
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$67
other 21% −$25
crypto 1% +$2
world 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +27.1% +15.0% 47% 42% +14.1%
≤30d 51 -21.7% -29.2% 35% 33% -47.6%
≤90d 132 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 45% -22.5%
all 174 +2.8% -7.0% 52% 46% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 46% -20.1%
10% -15.9% 33% -27.8%
15% -24.0% 26% -34.8%
20% -31.5% 21% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses90 / 84
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions13
Markets (closed)174 / 187
History coverage146d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 16 $3 $0 -0%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 $0 -23%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$9 +874%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 +$3 +156%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $1 −$1 -82%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $1 +$2 +180%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $10 +$1 +12%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $1 $0 +11%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +17%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1 +$1 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 19 $4 +$1 +31%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers May 19 $3 −$2 -52%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 19 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 46¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $1 7h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $1 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 30h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $1 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 38¢ $1 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $1 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.67 · official $23.67 (match) · 423 history records