Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83fc…6c92 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$615 (+22%) realized +$477 · open +$139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$569per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$2,979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$940
sports 12% −$325
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -8.0% -16.7% 33% 33% +43.9%
≤30d 3 -8.0% -16.7% 33% 33% +43.9%
≤90d 3 -8.0% -16.7% 33% 33% +43.9%
all 3 -8.0% -16.7% 33% 33% +43.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 33% +43.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 33% +30.1%
15% -32.0% 33% +17.6%
20% -38.6% 33% +6.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +54% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$897 vs −$210 · ×4.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,979
Realized+$477
Unrealized+$139
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$569
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,377 $1,520 +$143 (+10%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $184 $180 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $245 −$95 -39%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $661 +$897 +136%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $332 −$325 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $40 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $91 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $148 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 7¢ $140 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $45 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $67 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $54 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $54 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $321 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $132 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $129 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $635 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $235 2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $509 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $50 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,979.33 · official $2,985.31 (match) · 24 history records