Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x83fa…d3fb
other · 119 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$195 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$203 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$203
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses17 / 101
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage125d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 118 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$72
14 days−$72
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Veneziano Vital do Rêgo win the Governor of Paraíba election? Yes 15¢ 3¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-78%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 29°C on April 24? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on April 24? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 28? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on April 20? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on April 23? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on April 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on April 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 19? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on April 24? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 30°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on April 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on April 22? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 14 $14 −$2 -16%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 14 $6 −$2 -38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $13 −$2 -14%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $13 −$5 -40%
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 14 $13 −$5 -41%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -14%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 13 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -7%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -14%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 13 $16 −$4 -22%
Will Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? Jun 13 $15 −$3 -22%
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? Jun 13 $11 −$4 -34%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 13 $3 $0 -7%
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -65%
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -8%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by June 30? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$5 -67%
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $17 −$6 -37%
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 13 $10 −$6 -55%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -32%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -37%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $18 −$4 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 11 $12 $0 +2%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May? May 20 $40 −$2 -5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? May 20 $12 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on April 30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on April 30? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 28? Apr 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on April 26? Apr 28 $12 +$22 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 29°C on April 24? Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on April 24? Apr 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on April 24? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 30°C on April 24? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 40% −$112
world 25% −$5
other 17% −$57
politics 11% −$9
weather 3% −$8
sports 2% −$12
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 26¢ $5 9m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 9¢ $4 41m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 59m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 14¢ $3 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 14¢ $3 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 32¢ $7 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 34¢ $7 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 34¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 26¢ $2 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 28¢ $9 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 32¢ $7 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 32¢ $7 2h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 4h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4h
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 41¢ $1 4h
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $1 4h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $8 4h
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 4h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 27¢ $11 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 28¢ $6 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 28¢ $6 6h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 6h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -19.9% -27.5% 8% 0% -26.6%
≤30d 42 -19.1% -26.8% 7% 0% -25.1%
≤90d 92 -34.6% -40.8% 12% 4% -25.7%
all 118 -29.4% -36.2% 14% 3% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 3% -16.0%
10% -42.3% 3% -24.0%
15% -47.8% 3% -31.4%
20% -53.0% 3% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.39 · official $1.39 (match) · 481 history records