Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83f9…d399 sports 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$151 (-1%) realized −$173 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate65%116W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days−$191
14 days−$83
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$218
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -1.2% -10.6% 75% 39% -11.4%
≤30d 178 -0.4% -9.9% 65% 43% -10.3%
≤90d 178 -0.4% -9.9% 65% 43% -10.3%
all 178 -0.4% -9.9% 65% 43% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 43% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 30% -18.9%
15% -26.4% 22% -26.7%
20% -33.6% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$22 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses116 / 62
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions1
Markets (closed)178 / 179
History coverage24d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 87¢ 98¢ $173 $195 +$22 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $452 −$129 -28%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $235 +$68 +29%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $130 +$7 +5%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $31 +$15 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $52 −$2 -4%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $147 +$14 +9%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 15 $157 −$72 -46%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 +$8 +38%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$12 +48%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 15 $22 +$2 +11%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $124 +$86 +70%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $73 +$11 +16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 $0 -3%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $207 −$205 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $180 +$10 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $201 +$24 +12%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $250 +$70 +28%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $96 −$70 -73%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 13 $74 $0 +0%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $170 +$14 +8%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $225 +$5 +2%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $301 +$13 +4%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $291 +$13 +4%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $150 +$7 +5%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 12 $200 +$6 +3%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa Jun 12 $8 +$5 +62%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $128 +$3 +2%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $477 −$58 -12%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $98 +$6 +6%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 11 $51 +$3 +7%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 11 $37 +$12 +31%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 11 $126 −$37 -29%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $105 +$3 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 +$19 +18%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $136 +$23 +17%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $166 +$32 +19%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $90 +$5 +6%
Alba Berlin vs. Brose Bamberg Jun 09 $20 +$6 +27%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 09 $55 +$4 +6%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $306 −$1 -0%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $221 +$85 +38%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $15 −$12 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 76¢ $13 28m
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 89¢ $35 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 89¢ $28 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 89¢ $55 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 85¢ $40 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 82¢ $2 1h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 94¢ $160 5h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano SELL Olimpia Milano $1 5h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano SELL Olimpia Milano 11¢ $22 5h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 36¢ $13 5h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 41¢ $15 5h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano SELL Olimpia Milano 60¢ $131 6h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 57¢ $25 6h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 56¢ $15 6h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 59¢ $20 6h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 59¢ $25 6h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 60¢ $25 6h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 62¢ $35 6h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 60¢ $15 6h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 68¢ $50 11h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 68¢ $50 11h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 78¢ $23 22h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 77¢ $211 22h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $137 22h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 100¢ $46 22h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 71¢ $50 23h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 82¢ $5 24h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 81¢ $5 24h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 81¢ $3 24h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 80¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.71 · official $194.71 (match) · 649 history records