Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83f9…6a45 other 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,812 (+1%) realized +$1,810 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate27%39W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$1,075per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$842now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$162
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$51
politics 41% −$77
sports 11% +$1,837
world 2% −$14
culture 1% −$1
economics 1% −$5
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -6.4% -15.3% 6% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 85 -7.9% -16.7% 6% 2% -8.6%
all 147 +2.1% -7.7% 27% 12% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 12% -8.5%
10% -16.5% 12% -17.3%
15% -24.6% 9% -25.3%
20% -32.0% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,690) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$6 · ×11.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.04 per $1 lost it wins $4.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$842
Realized+$1,810
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses39 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)147 / 150
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,075
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $385 $387 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $248 $249 +$0 (+0%)
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $207 $207 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $239 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,531 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $264 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $3,037 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,590 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,712 −$5 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,362 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $911 −$1 -0%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 06 $68 −$68 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 06 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $315 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $238 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $1,384 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $416 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,408 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3,877 −$4 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $503 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $59 +$47 +79%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $7,004 −$9 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,138 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $664 −$1 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $1,640 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $3,164 −$5 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,800 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,377 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,745 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,856 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 03 $965 −$6 -1%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $2,041 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $2,961 −$4 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,986 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $2,086 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $207 40m
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $239 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $239 3h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $220 23h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $220 24h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $265 29h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $265 30h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $263 46h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $264 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $226 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $226 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $235 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $235 3d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $222 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $223 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $248 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $430 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $431 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $424 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $424 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $381 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $382 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $353 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $354 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $453 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $454 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $409 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $409 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $433 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $434 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $842.04 · official $841.91 (match) · 713 history records