Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83f8…dc3e world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate66%19W / 10L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$3
other 21% $0
politics 5% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.6% -3.5% 50% 10% -8.9%
≤30d 19 +4.2% -5.7% 58% 11% -9.1%
≤90d 19 +4.2% -5.7% 58% 11% -9.1%
all 29 +3.0% -6.8% 66% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 7% -9.1%
10% -15.7% 3% -17.8%
15% -23.9% 3% -25.7%
20% -31.3% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses19 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage453d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $101 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $90 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 22 $15 −$1 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $37 +$1 +1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$2 -18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $17 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $14 $0 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $81 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2000 on May 2? May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Trump x Putin talk by Friday? Apr 16 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? Apr 11 $14 $0 +1%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $38 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $37 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 45¢ $18 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $19 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $34 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $1 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $34 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $14 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $38 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $37 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $34 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $33 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.91 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records