Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
83 0x83f3…9afe sports 79 markets active 1d ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$515 (+12%) realized +$518 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%46W / 31L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$93
14 days+$90
30 days+$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$486
other 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +16.2% +5.1% 59% 59% -1.0%
≤30d 29 +32.5% +19.8% 66% 66% +18.9%
≤90d 77 +13.4% +2.6% 60% 60% +1.0%
all 77 +13.4% +2.6% 60% 60% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 60% +1.0%
10% -7.2% 60% -8.7%
15% -16.2% 56% -17.5%
20% -24.4% 53% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$54 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$518
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses46 / 31
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage96d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $51 +$65 +129%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$45 +90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $76 +$98 +129%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$84 +165%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $56 +$32 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$31 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $41 +$55 +134%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $76 +$30 +40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $46 +$29 +65%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $67 −$66 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $76 −$75 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $51 +$53 +105%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $76 −$75 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $41 +$31 +76%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $51 +$42 +83%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Rocket League: Gentle Mates vs Twisted Minds (BO7) - RLCS Major Paris May 24 $51 +$84 +165%
Rocket League: Karmine Corp vs Gentle Mates (BO7) - RLCS Major Paris P May 23 $51 +$67 +131%
Rocket League: Manchester City Esports vs Shopify Rebellion (BO7) - RL May 23 $76 +$60 +79%
Rocket League: FURIA Esports vs Twisted Minds (BO7) - RLCS Major Paris May 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Rocket League: R8 Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - RLCS Major Paris Gr May 21 $51 +$39 +76%
Rocket League: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - RLCS Maj May 21 $51 +$46 +90%
Rocket League: Twisted Minds vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - RLCS World C May 20 $51 +$88 +172%
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $36 +$33 +93%
Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5) May 15 $26 −$25 -98%
NHL Playoffs: Canadiens vs. Lightning Total Games O/U 5.5 May 02 $50 +$28 +57%
Will Philadelphia Flyers advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs? Apr 30 $50 +$65 +130%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Apr 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Apr 29 $76 −$75 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) Apr 29 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 28 $75 −$75 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $75 −$75 -100%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 26 $63 −$63 -100%
FC Cincinnati vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Apr 26 $75 −$75 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 26 $75 +$59 +79%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 26 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Carolina Hurricanes advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs? Apr 26 $75 +$47 +62%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $50 +$62 +124%
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 Apr 25 $40 +$43 +106%
Spread: Oilers (-1.5) Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 23 $50 +$57 +114%
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 5.5 Apr 23 $50 +$38 +76%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Apr 22 $50 +$40 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $76 29h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $51 29h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $76 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 63¢ $56 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $76 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $67 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $76 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $46 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Vitality 56¢ $76 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $41 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 27¢ $26 10d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 55¢ $51 10d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Astralis 54¢ $51 10d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 56¢ $41 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 12d
Rocket League: Gentle Mates vs Twisted Minds (BO7) - RLCS Major Paris BUY Twisted Minds 37¢ $51 23d
Rocket League: FURIA Esports vs Twisted Minds (BO7) - RLCS Major Paris BUY FURIA Esports 30¢ $26 24d
Rocket League: Manchester City Esports vs Shopify Rebellion (BO7) - RL BUY Shopify Rebellion 55¢ $76 24d
Rocket League: Karmine Corp vs Gentle Mates (BO7) - RLCS Major Paris P BUY Karmine Corp 43¢ $51 24d
Rocket League: R8 Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - RLCS Major Paris Gr BUY FURIA Esports 56¢ $51 26d
Rocket League: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - RLCS Maj BUY Shopify Rebellion 52¢ $51 26d
Rocket League: Twisted Minds vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - RLCS World C BUY Shopify Rebellion 36¢ $51 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.14 · official $47.14 (match) · 157 history records