Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:31:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x83f2…186a politics 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+0%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$20
politics 43% −$23
tech 3% −$2
sports 3% +$93
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 +1.4% -8.3% 4% 4% -9.5%
all 119 +4.9% -5.1% 10% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 9% -9.4%
10% -14.2% 7% -18.1%
15% -22.5% 6% -26.0%
20% -30.1% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×12.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)119 / 121
History coverage118d
Avg bet$370
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $292 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 04 $992 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $384 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $308 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $281 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $369 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $323 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $368 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $327 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $375 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $340 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $358 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $296 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $289 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $297 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $329 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $373 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $381 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $368 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $307 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $283 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $332 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $374 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $329 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $347 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $403 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $305 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $400 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $371 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $348 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $67 1h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $67 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $67 9d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 9d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 13d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 19d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 23d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $316 33d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $316 34d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $350 35d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $350 36d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $382 38d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $382 41d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $283 41d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $283 47d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $369 47d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $369 47d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $292 47d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $292 48d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $398 49d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $399 50d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $335 50d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $335 50d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $319 50d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $319 51d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $327 51d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $327 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.95 · official $105.95 (match) · 351 history records