Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83f2…c203 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,871 (-52%) realized −$2,191 · open −$2,680
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$845now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$400
7 days−$1,554
14 days−$1,554
30 days−$1,752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$4,628
other 16% +$178
world 10% +$431
finance 7% −$442
sports 7% −$135
crypto 5% −$438
tech 2% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +56.1% +41.2% 20% 20% -69.8%
≤30d 7 +38.1% +24.9% 29% 29% -70.4%
≤90d 23 -1.2% -10.6% 35% 30% -49.3%
all 34 -13.7% -21.9% 38% 32% -47.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 32% -47.3%
10% -29.4% 26% -52.3%
15% -36.2% 24% -56.9%
20% -42.5% 9% -61.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$163 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$845
Realized−$2,191
Unrealized−$2,680
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions14
Markets (closed)34 / 48
History coverage147d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 46¢ 46¢ $167 $165 −$2 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Under 54¢ 78¢ $111 $159 +$48 (+44%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $150 $130 −$20 (-13%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $105 $92 −$13 (-13%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $76 $77 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 56¢ 61¢ $59 $65 +$5 (+9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $27 $60 +$33 (+119%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 18¢ $2,480 $35 −$2,445 (-99%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 33¢ 12¢ $84 $29 −$55 (-65%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $22 −$4 (-14%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 13¢ $107 $8 −$99 (-93%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? Yes $131 $1 −$130 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $123 −$10 -8%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $113 −$10 -9%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 +$426 +416%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $30 −$6 -19%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $2,093 −$1,954 -93%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $41 +$35 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $237 −$233 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 26 $78 −$10 -13%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 26 $134 −$134 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $112 +$32 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 24 $415 −$334 -80%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 23 $36 +$1 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $87 +$230 +266%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $18 −$1 -7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 19 $101 +$17 +17%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 15 $40 −$25 -63%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 09 $284 +$135 +48%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 04 $200 +$84 +42%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Apr 02 $225 −$75 -33%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Mar 04 $138 +$62 +45%
Solana Up or Down on February 8? Feb 08 $130 −$130 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 4? Feb 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Transylvania Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Lucia Bronzetti Feb 04 $8 +$2 +18%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on February 2? Feb 03 $60 −$57 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3? Feb 03 $144 −$144 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 03 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Feb 01 $165 −$165 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on January 30? Jan 31 $156 +$67 +42%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? Jan 30 $109 +$47 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $155 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 24¢ $53 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $103 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $60 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 24¢ $60 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $14 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $77 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $113 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $113 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $123 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $60 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $529 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $25 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $132 5h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 11h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $183 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $132 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 11d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 11d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $845.21 · official $845.21 (match) · 179 history records