Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:20:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83ef…3732 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%22W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$12
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$13
world 36% −$29
politics 17% −$10
sports 1% +$23
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.8% -11.1% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 -3.3% -12.5% 23% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 31 -2.8% -12.0% 23% 0% -10.2%
all 73 +0.1% -9.5% 30% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 4% -9.9%
10% -18.1% 4% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 3% -26.4%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses22 / 51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage297d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $68 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -12%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $184 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $78 −$2 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $71 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $110 −$6 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $308 −$1 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $22 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $35 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $311 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $35 −$2 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $233 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $77 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $75 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $33 −$16 -48%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $159 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $302 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $553 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $552 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $616 −$8 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $5 $0 +9%
Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan Dec 12 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $53 −$14 -26%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $43 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 24 $27 +$18 +70%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $237 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $68 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $68 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $26 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $26 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $23 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $38 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $14 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $75 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $5 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $6 35h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $28 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $33 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $76 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $76 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $76 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $78 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.00 (match) · 514 history records