Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x83ed…03eb other 989 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 205d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,308 (+1%) realized +$3,308 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate90%895W / 94L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$489est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$552
7 days+$550
14 days−$550
30 days+$1,589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$2,121
sports 44% +$1,434
politics 1% $0
world 0% +$22
crypto 0% −$38
tech 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 5% -8.6%
≤30d 353 +0.5% -9.0% 94% 7% -8.5%
≤90d 765 +0.1% -9.5% 93% 8% -7.7%
all 989 +0.4% -9.2% 90% 10% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 10% -8.1%
10% -17.8% 8% -16.9%
15% -25.8% 6% -25.0%
20% -33.1% 4% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$96 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,308
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses895 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$489
Open positions0
Markets (closed)989 / 989
History coverage205d ⚠
Avg bet$234
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 989 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $4 $0 +1%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $48 $0 +1%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1,747 +$15 +1%
Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals Jun 23 $17 $0 +1%
Désiré Doué: 2+ goals Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $4,022 +$39 +1%
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals Jun 23 $83 $0 +1%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $1,983 +$17 +1%
Michael Olise: 3+ goals Jun 23 $4 $0 +1%
Désiré Doué: 3+ goals Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,304 +$193 +8%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $4,950 +$45 +1%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $122 $0 +0%
Agustín Canobbio: 3+ goals Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Nicolás de la Cruz: 1+ goals Jun 22 $518 +$38 +7%
Maximiliano Araújo: 1+ goals Jun 22 $43 +$1 +2%
Garry Rodrigues: 1+ goals Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Nicolás de la Cruz: 3+ goals Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Garry Rodrigues: 2+ goals Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 22 $778 +$4 +0%
Nicolás de la Cruz: 2+ goals Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $171 +$6 +4%
Federico Valverde: 3+ goals Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Federico Valverde: 2+ goals Jun 22 $263 $0 +0%
Darwin Núñez: 2+ goals Jun 22 $64 $0 +0%
Darwin Núñez: 3+ goals Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Brian Rodríguez: 2+ goals Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Rodrigo Zalazar: 3+ goals Jun 22 $78 $0 +0%
Juan Manuel Sanabria: 1+ goals Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $77 $0 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $2,012 +$8 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,294 +$1 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,134 +$8 +1%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 1+ assists Jun 22 $1 $0 +24%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $42 $0 +1%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $69 +$1 +1%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $33 $0 +1%
Shahriyar Moghanloo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals Jun 21 $70 $0 +0%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 21 $70 $0 +0%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists Jun 21 $65 $0 +0%
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists Jun 21 $65 $0 +0%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists Jun 21 $93 $0 +0%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Mohammad Mohebbi: 1+ goals Jun 21 $277 +$2 +1%
Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $487 +$1 +0%
Nicolas Raskin: 1+ goals Jun 21 $65 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $4 1h
Désiré Doué: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Désiré Doué: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Michael Olise: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,497 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $993 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $757 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $180 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $495 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $461 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $495 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $216 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $83 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY No 97¢ $33 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $2,029 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $15 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $15 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $48 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $4 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $242 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $21 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $63 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $120 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records