Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
83 0x83ec…70c8 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-8%) realized −$55 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$141
sports 5% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.3% -12.5% 20% 20% -20.2%
≤30d 5 -3.3% -12.5% 20% 20% -20.2%
≤90d 5 -3.3% -12.5% 20% 20% -20.2%
all 5 -3.3% -12.5% 20% 20% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 20% -20.2%
10% -20.8% 20% -27.8%
15% -28.5% 20% -34.8%
20% -35.5% 20% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$35 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $88 $104 +$16 (+18%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $35 $17 −$17 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $301 −$32 -10%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $33 +$71 +216%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $178 −$38 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $91 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $91 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $104 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $33 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $105 2d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $36 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $35 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $160 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $161 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $18 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $186 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.72 · official $121.72 (match) · 19 history records