Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83e9…e865 crypto 154 markets active 3d ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$115 (-3%) realized −$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%63W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$182
14 days−$304
30 days−$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$93
sports 19% −$337
other 5% +$20
culture 0% −$10
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -45.3% -50.5% 33% 25% -25.7%
≤30d 23 -36.2% -42.3% 35% 26% -27.3%
≤90d 104 -37.7% -43.6% 30% 27% -15.7%
all 154 -22.2% -29.6% 41% 32% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 32% -14.7%
10% -36.3% 25% -22.9%
15% -42.5% 19% -30.4%
20% -48.1% 17% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses63 / 91
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage137d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $81 −$80 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $80 +$6 +7%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 −$98 -95%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $328 +$62 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $56 −$13 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $112 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $83 +$131 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $250 −$249 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$126 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $62 +$68 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $11 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $24 −$9 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $32 −$23 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $32 −$13 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $27 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 09 $259 +$28 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 09 $20 −$12 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 09 $30 +$36 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 09 $195 +$52 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 09 $209 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 09 $286 +$27 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 09 $30 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 09 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 09 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 09 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 09 $40 −$6 -16%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $10 −$9 -93%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $30 −$8 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 08 $110 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 08 $62 +$20 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 08 $19 −$17 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 08 $10 +$15 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 08 $20 +$22 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 08 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 08 $20 +$15 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 08 $30 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $81 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 93¢ $80 4d
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $15 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $107 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $126 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 500 history records