Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
83 0x83e8…b9bc crypto 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$423 (-1%) realized −$423 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate92%223W / 19L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$138
30 days−$450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$279
tech 19% −$343
other 13% +$158
finance 2% +$12
world 2% +$33
sports 1% +$2
politics 0% −$56
economics 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -3.4% -12.6% 94% 6% -10.1%
≤30d 66 -3.0% -12.3% 94% 2% -14.2%
≤90d 185 -3.1% -12.4% 95% 3% -10.2%
all 242 -1.9% -11.2% 92% 15% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 15% -10.3%
10% -19.7% 6% -18.8%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.7%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$102 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$423
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses223 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage172d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? Jun 20 $106 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $105 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $17 +$2 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 18? Jun 18 $65 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $101 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on June 17? Jun 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 on June 15? Jun 15 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$1 +5%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 9? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $148 −$133 -90%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 7? Jun 07 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $403 −$400 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $382 +$15 +4%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 04 $385 +$4 +1%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $111 +$10 +9%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $257 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $610 on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $367 +$7 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on June 2? Jun 02 $8 $0 +1%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $22 $0 +2%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 on June 2? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $610 on June 2? Jun 02 $310 +$1 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $348 +$17 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $337 +$12 +4%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 30? May 31 $336 +$1 +0%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 29? May 30 $0 $0 +1%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $333 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 29? May 29 $333 +$1 +0%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $210 +$4 +2%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $91 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $106 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $95 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 28h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 88¢ $8 44h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 87¢ $9 44h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 44h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 44h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $54 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 2d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 2d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 3d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $68 3d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $23 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $8 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 4d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $97 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $20 7d
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 99¢ $10 7d
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 99¢ $9 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 8d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 8d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 100¢ $19 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 606 history records