Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
83 0x83e2…bc9b crypto 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$38 (-8%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$32
crypto 25% −$52
other 21% +$4
world 10% $0
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +9.4% -1.0% 100% 20% +1.5%
≤30d 5 +9.4% -1.0% 100% 20% +1.5%
≤90d 5 +9.4% -1.0% 100% 20% +1.5%
all 18 -3.1% -12.3% 78% 22% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 22% -12.1%
10% -20.7% 22% -20.5%
15% -28.4% 11% -28.2%
20% -35.4% 6% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage219d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $111 +$25 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Nov 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 26 $48 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Nov 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Nov 26 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Nov 26 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Nov 25 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Nov 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Nov 25 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 25 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 10PM ET Nov 25 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Nov 25 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Nov 25 $4 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 25 $2 +$2 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $111 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 92¢ $50 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $43 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $40 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $36 212d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $36 212d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 212d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 213d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $12 213d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 213d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $12 213d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 213d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 213d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 213d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 213d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 213d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 214d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 214d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 214d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 214d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $28 218d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 218d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $20 218d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records