Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:06:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x83e2…d9da
sports · 55 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$34 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$13
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses26 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage134d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 13 $12 +$5 +44%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 13 $9 +$7 +76%
Pacers vs. Raptors Apr 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Raptors vs. Timberwolves Apr 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Pacers vs. Bucks Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Rockets vs. Knicks Apr 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Clippers Apr 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Pistons Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Norfolk State Spartans vs. Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks Apr 15 $8 −$8 -100%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. UCF Knights Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Heat Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Warriors vs. Wizards Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets Apr 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Raptors vs. Bucks Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Apr 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Holy Cross Crusaders vs. Loyola Maryland Greyhounds Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Apr 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bulls vs. Heat Apr 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Jazz vs. Pacers Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Heat vs. 76ers Apr 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Thunder vs. Knicks Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Mar 27 $11 +$6 +54%
Magic vs. Heat Mar 15 $14 +$23 +163%
Magic vs. Timberwolves Mar 12 $9 +$20 +224%
Mavericks vs. Magic Mar 06 $10 +$3 +28%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Mar 02 $13 +$19 +144%
Oilers vs. Sharks Mar 01 $8 +$12 +144%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $6 +$3 +43%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Feb 27 $7 +$3 +43%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Feb 27 $10 +$6 +59%
Kings vs. Rockets Feb 26 $12 +$1 +12%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 26 $10 +$7 +67%
76ers vs. Pacers Feb 25 $7 +$2 +25%
Mavericks vs. Nets Feb 25 $12 +$10 +82%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Feb 21 $9 +$9 +96%
Hawks vs. 76ers Feb 20 $7 +$7 +104%
Cleveland State Vikings vs. Youngstown State Penguins Feb 19 $8 +$2 +19%
Coppin State Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs Feb 17 $5 +$11 +212%
Iona Gaels vs. Niagara Purple Eagles Feb 16 $5 +$9 +186%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA? Feb 15 $40 $0 +0%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 13 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 09 $87 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Pistons Feb 08 $9 +$10 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% −$34
other 20% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $13 1h
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $12 25d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 56¢ $9 44d
76ers vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 71¢ $14 76d
Pelicans vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 65¢ $11 79d
Spurs vs. Heat BUY Heat 38¢ $11 82d
Suns vs. Timberwolves BUY Suns 41¢ $10 87d
Warriors vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 27¢ $12 88d
Pacers vs. Bucks BUY Pacers 26¢ $11 90d
Magic vs. Heat BUY Magic 38¢ $14 91d
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 35¢ $14 92d
Magic vs. Timberwolves BUY Magic 31¢ $9 98d
Knicks vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 48¢ $6 99d
Raptors vs. Timberwolves BUY Raptors 36¢ $7 99d
Mavericks vs. Magic BUY Magic 78¢ $10 100d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $11 100d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 43¢ $11 102d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 41¢ $13 104d
Oilers vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 41¢ $8 105d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 70¢ $6 106d
Pelicans vs. Jazz BUY Pelicans 70¢ $7 106d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Trail Blazers 63¢ $10 107d
Heat vs. 76ers BUY Heat 45¢ $7 107d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 60¢ $10 108d
Kings vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 89¢ $12 108d
Mavericks vs. Nets BUY Mavericks 55¢ $12 109d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY 76ers 80¢ $7 109d
Spurs vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 52¢ $10 110d
Raptors vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 42¢ $12 111d
Rockets vs. Knicks BUY Rockets 41¢ $8 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +29.9%
≤30d 1 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +29.9%
≤90d 29 -83.7% -85.2% 10% 10% -83.7%
all 54 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 48% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 48% -14.5%
10% -21.8% 44% -22.7%
15% -29.4% 41% -30.2%
20% -36.3% 31% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.90 · official $12.90 (match) · 115 history records