Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83e1…099b crypto 733 markets active 0h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$24,444 (+34%) realized +$24,467 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%318W / 414L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$370
7 days+$428
14 days−$1,734
30 days−$1,396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$27,469
politics 3% −$1,583
other 3% −$1,482
world 0% +$183
finance 0% −$59
economics 0% −$79
sports 0% −$4
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 60% +15.2%
≤30d 101 -25.6% -32.7% 39% 39% -24.7%
≤90d 191 -18.9% -26.6% 41% 40% -18.4%
all 732 -12.2% -20.5% 43% 41% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 41% +7.7%
10% -28.1% 38% -2.6%
15% -35.1% 33% -12.0%
20% -41.5% 29% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$74 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized+$24,467
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses318 / 414
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)732 / 733
History coverage362d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 732 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $300 $277 −$23 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$78 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $67 +$67 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$88 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $105 +$74 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $207 +$208 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $105 +$198 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $89 +$126 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $115 +$108 +94%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $115 +$112 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $128 +$120 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $60 +$67 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $53 +$50 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $69 +$57 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $93 +$74 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $76 +$77 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET Jun 09 $146 −$146 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $181 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $67 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $192 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $179 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 47m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $309 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $416 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $215 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $99 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $223 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $115 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $62 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $61 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $35 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $115 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.11 · official $277.11 (match) · 2582 history records