Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
83 0x83e0…8f21 sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,077 (+12%) realized +$5,150 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%37W / 44L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$473per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$805est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,531
7 days+$7,015
14 days+$7,045
30 days+$7,523
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$6,640
other 33% +$544
crypto 4% +$182
world 0% +$10
politics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +53.8% +39.1% 47% 38% +5.1%
≤30d 73 +26.6% +14.5% 45% 36% +3.7%
≤90d 81 +21.1% +9.6% 46% 36% +3.4%
all 81 +21.1% +9.6% 46% 36% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 36% +3.4%
10% -0.9% 26% -6.5%
15% -10.5% 17% -15.5%
20% -19.3% 16% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$576) neutral
Persistence
early -17% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$40 · ×6.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.24 per $1 lost it wins $5.24
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized+$5,150
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses37 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$805
Open positions8
Markets (closed)81 / 89
History coverage62d
Avg bet$473
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $80 $89 +$9 (+11%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 26¢ 14¢ $125 $67 −$58 (-46%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 61¢ 48¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $25 $5 −$20 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $734 +$1,040 +142%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $114 +$5 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $416 +$1,806 +434%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $977 +$597 +61%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,509 +$625 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,655 −$215 -8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$2 -11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $957 +$65 +7%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $403 +$10 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,047 −$75 -7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2,748 +$780 +28%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 +$97 +194%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $355 −$145 -41%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $339 −$44 -13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $36 −$3 -9%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2,378 +$462 +19%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $164 +$215 +131%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $126 −$63 -50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,591 −$44 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $95 −$5 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $611 −$8 -1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,707 +$403 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $453 +$599 +132%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $83 −$14 -17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $18 +$2 +13%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$7 -4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $819 −$35 -4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $749 −$48 -6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $543 −$56 -10%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $320 −$30 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $401 +$3 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $586 +$173 +30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,002 +$88 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1,303 +$229 +18%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $417 +$169 +40%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $143 +$137 +96%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $369 −$139 -38%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $385 −$38 -10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $528 +$674 +128%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,796 −$83 -5%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,188 −$40 -3%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $418 −$23 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1,238 +$191 +15%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $200 +$31 +16%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $193 −$169 -88%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $118 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $30 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $19 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 79¢ $50 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $50 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 70¢ $50 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 66¢ $50 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 12¢ $77 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 8¢ $14 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 8¢ $29 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 7¢ $8 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 10¢ $71 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 13¢ $93 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 11¢ $119 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $114 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 29¢ $246 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $2 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $6 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $288 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $151 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $258 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 37¢ $1,231 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $18 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $249 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $223 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 22¢ $20 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 22¢ $20 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 19¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 19¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.04 · official $212.04 (match) · 920 history records