Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83de…9126 other 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$26
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$42
sports 26% −$25
politics 9% −$8
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$7
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)257 / 258
History coverage138d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $131 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $327 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $356 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $240 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $131 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $207 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $464 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $336 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $121 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $666 −$2 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $118 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $191 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $320 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $213 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $124 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $337 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $250 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $201 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $185 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $448 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $652 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $133 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $360 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 5h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 6h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 15h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 17h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 18h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 20h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 27h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 29h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 30h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $34 32h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 33h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 34h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 39h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 40h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 42h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 44h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 45h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 47h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.40 · official $54.40 (match) · 1394 history records