Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83dd…43d4 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-62.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -58.6% -62.5% 33% 33% -13.4%
≤30d 3 -58.6% -62.5% 33% 33% -13.4%
≤90d 3 -58.6% -62.5% 33% 33% -13.4%
all 3 -58.6% -62.5% 33% 33% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.5% 33% -13.4%
10% -66.1% 33% -21.7%
15% -69.4% 0% -29.3%
20% -72.4% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$30 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$384
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$49 +24%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 15h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 42h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 54¢ $51 42h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 42h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 42h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.84 · official $383.84 (match) · 13 history records