Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
83 0x83dd…06d2 sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$558 (+59%) realized +$562 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$616
other 33% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+46.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +61.8% +46.3% 71% 71% +89.7%
≤30d 7 +61.8% +46.3% 71% 71% +89.7%
≤90d 7 +61.8% +46.3% 71% 71% +89.7%
all 7 +61.8% +46.3% 71% 71% +89.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +46.3% 71% +89.7%
10% ← realistic here +32.3% 71% +71.5%
15% +19.6% 57% +55.0%
20% +7.8% 43% +39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +110% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +110% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$66 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.12 per $1 lost it wins $5.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$394
Realized+$562
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions6
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 41¢ 40¢ $123 $122 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 62¢ 60¢ $105 $103 −$3 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $65 $62 −$2 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 +$472 +307%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$140 +137%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $77 +$48 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 +$12 +23%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$9 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $42 18m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $63 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $125 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $44 8h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $74 9h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $23 9h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $61 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $121 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $31 14h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $67 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 15h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 79¢ $27 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $2 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $6 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $10 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $3 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $5 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 16h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 47¢ $35 17h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 24h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $51 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $77 25h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $21 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.60 · official $393.60 (match) · 34 history records