Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83d8…82d7 crypto 589 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (179 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$575 (-2%) realized −$575 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate65%383W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day179.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,567
other 1% −$89
sports 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (179 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 452 -4.4% -13.5% 69% 49% -15.9%
≤30d 589 -6.6% -15.5% 65% 47% -16.8%
≤90d 589 -6.6% -15.5% 65% 47% -16.8%
all 589 -6.6% -15.5% 65% 47% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover179.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 47% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 32% -24.8%
15% -30.9% 26% -32.0%
20% -37.7% 20% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$43 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$575
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses383 / 206
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)589 / 589
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day179.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 589 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $197 −$157 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $72 −$63 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $42 +$30 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $467 −$467 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$26 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $293 −$176 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $367 −$367 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $134 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $290 +$456 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $163 −$163 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $139 +$60 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$16 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $142 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $258 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $206 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $209 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records