Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:35:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83d4…9764 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$98 (+7%) realized +$95 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$981now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$6
sports 29% +$124
other 7% −$17
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 23 -6.2% -15.1% 48% 26% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 26% +9.0%
10% -23.2% 26% -1.4%
15% -30.7% 26% -10.9%
20% -37.5% 26% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$12 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$981
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage633d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $914 $914 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $64 $68 +$4 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stars vs. Senators Nov 12 $22 +$1 +6%
Kings vs. Canadiens Nov 12 $12 +$12 +100%
Bucks vs. Mavericks Nov 11 $10 +$8 +82%
Celtics vs. Magic Nov 10 $15 +$10 +70%
Blue Jays vs. Rays Sep 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 16 $6 +$7 +127%
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 19 $1 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? May 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Mircea Geoană win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Canucks vs. Hurricanes Jan 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Kraken vs. Blue Jackets Jan 10 $101 +$101 +100%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Jan 09 $130 +$97 +75%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $65 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $914 1h
Kings vs. Canadiens BUY Kings 50¢ $12 227d
Stars vs. Senators BUY Stars 47¢ $11 227d
Stars vs. Senators BUY Senators 54¢ $11 227d
Bucks vs. Mavericks BUY Bucks 55¢ $10 228d
Celtics vs. Magic BUY Magic 59¢ $15 231d
Blue Jays vs. Rays BUY Rays 51¢ $13 283d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Buccaneers 44¢ $6 284d
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 333d
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 345d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 368d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 403d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $6 403d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 403d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 406d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 407d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 407d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 407d
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 408d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 408d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 100¢ $5 408d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 414d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 414d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 98¢ $5 422d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $5 422d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $5 425d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 96¢ $5 427d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $5 428d
Canucks vs. Hurricanes BUY Canucks 43¢ $101 532d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $981.27 · official $981.27 (match) · 47 history records