Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83d3…b60d sports 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-8%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate40%36W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day169.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$17
other 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -8.0% -16.8% 40% 31% -14.7%
≤30d 90 -8.0% -16.8% 40% 31% -14.7%
≤90d 90 -8.0% -16.8% 40% 31% -14.7%
all 90 -8.0% -16.8% 40% 31% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 31% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 23% -22.8%
15% -32.0% 17% -30.3%
20% -38.7% 12% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 54
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)90 / 96
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day169.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 31¢ 31¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 70¢ 69¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Under 81¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 68¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 71¢ 69¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 50¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $4 −$1 -23%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$1 -18%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $4 +$2 +45%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 -10%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +134%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 $0 -9%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$2 -40%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $4 $0 -10%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $4 +$3 +82%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $4 −$1 -28%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $4 +$4 +90%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $4 −$1 -30%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $4 −$1 -14%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$1 -19%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +21%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 -12%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $4 $0 +10%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$2 -39%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$3 +64%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 16 $4 −$1 -28%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$1 -30%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $4 −$1 -36%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$4 +90%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -38%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 −$2 -38%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$1 -34%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 −$1 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 53¢ $2 19m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 70¢ $2 36m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 46m
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $2 58m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $2 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $2 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 31¢ $2 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 34¢ $2 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 36¢ $2 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 68¢ $2 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 2h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 70¢ $2 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 24¢ $2 2h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 50¢ $2 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ $2 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 80¢ $2 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 3h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 27¢ $2 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 76¢ $2 3h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 61¢ $2 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 3h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 81¢ $2 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.62 · official $15.62 (match) · 239 history records