Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

83 0x83d1…0ffa sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 166d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$196 · open −$180

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%9W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$92per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$15est.

Kalshi-fit76%portable

Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$262

7 days−$90

14 days−$90

30 days−$90

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-10.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-24.2%	-31.4%	36%	36%	-18.2%
≤30d	11	-24.2%	-31.4%	36%	36%	-18.2%
≤90d	11	-24.2%	-31.4%	36%	36%	-18.2%
all	18	-0.5%	-10.0%	50%	50%	-1.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.0%	50%	-1.7%
10%	-18.6%	50%	-11.1%
15%	-26.5%	50%	-19.7%
20%	-33.7%	50%	-27.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 30% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +37% → late -38% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$95 vs −$79 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.2 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage

Net worth$123

Realized+$196

Unrealized−$180

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses9 / 9

Est. fees paid−$15

Open positions3

Markets (closed)18 / 21

History coverage166d

Avg bet$92

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5	Under	50¢	64¢	$95	$123	+$27 (+29%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	Under	38¢	0¢	$108	$0	−$108 (-100%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Under	39¢	0¢	$100	$0	−$100 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$185	+$124	+67%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$98	+$87	+89%
Spread: England (-2.5)	Jun 27	$102	−$100	-98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$50	−$49	-98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 27	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	Jun 27	$72	−$70	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$107	−$105	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$51	−$50	-98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$74	+$78	+105%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$74	+$128	+172%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$35	−$34	-98%
Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5	Jan 15	$100	+$100	+100%
Nets vs. Pelicans	Jan 15	$103	+$99	+96%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5	Jan 14	$105	−$105	-100%
Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5	Jan 14	$66	+$63	+96%
Hawks vs. Lakers	Jan 14	$110	+$98	+89%
Bulls vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5	Jan 14	$100	−$100	-100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-13?	Jan 14	$100	+$75	+75%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	50¢	$97	13m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	39¢	$102	49m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	38¢	$110	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$309	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	59¢	$185	4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$185	4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$98	18h
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY England	44¢	$102	18h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	34¢	$50	24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	43¢	$102	25h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$72	26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	44¢	$107	27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	41¢	$51	36h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	48¢	$74	2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	32¢	$35	2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Under	36¢	$74	2d
Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5	BUY Over	50¢	$100	164d
Nets vs. Pelicans	BUY Pelicans	51¢	$103	164d
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$105	164d
Hawks vs. Lakers	BUY Lakers	53¢	$110	165d
Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5	BUY Over	51¢	$66	165d
Bulls vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5	BUY Under	50¢	$100	165d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-13?	BUY Yes	57¢	$100	165d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.15 · official $123.15 (match) · 30 history records