Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83d1…373b crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (177 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate65%15W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day177.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$141
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (177 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -8.4% -17.1% 65% 43% -13.7%
≤30d 23 -8.4% -17.1% 65% 43% -13.7%
≤90d 23 -8.4% -17.1% 65% 43% -13.7%
all 23 -8.4% -17.1% 65% 43% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover177.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 43% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 17% -22.0%
15% -32.3% 9% -29.5%
20% -38.9% 4% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$75 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses15 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day177.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $316 −$236 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $257 +$23 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $213 −$209 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $285 +$80 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $177 +$32 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $262 +$33 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $152 +$40 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $254 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$35 -84%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $220 +$97 +44%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -75%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $106 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $181 +$13 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $75 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $113 +$70 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $134 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $97 −$97 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $43 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 41m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $4 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records